EUR/USD Rallies to 1.1456, Eyes Critical Resistance at 1.1462–1.1472
Softer U.S. CPI and PPI data pressure the dollar, sending EUR/USD to session highs and toward a well-tested resistance band.
The euro surged to a fresh session high of 1.1456 against the dollar Thursday after back-to-back U.S. inflation reports — this week's CPI and today's PPI — came in softer than expected, reinforcing the case that price pressures in the United States are continuing to ease. The data shifted market sentiment toward the view that the Federal Reserve has room to hold rates steady and could eventually cut if the disinflationary trend persists.
Treasury yields retreated in response to the inflation data, with the 2-year note falling 5.6 basis points to 4.136% and the 10-year dropping 3.6 basis points to 4.549%. Those moves directly weighed on the greenback, providing the fuel for EUR/USD's climb. Analysts note that the 2-year yield remains comfortably above 4.0%, while the 10-year would need to close and hold below 4.5% to give bond buyers greater conviction.
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From a technical standpoint, the pair is now knocking on a resistance zone that has repeatedly turned back rallies — the 1.14618–1.14715 range. The 1.14618 level rejected advances on July 3, July 10, and July 14, and it also corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the May 27 peak, reinforcing its significance. Just above, 1.14715 marked the post-jobs-report high on July 2 and stands as the final ceiling before buyers can target higher retracement levels.
A convincing break above the entire 1.14618–1.14715 resistance band would signal that bulls are reclaiming control of the pair and open the door to further upside. Until that breakout is confirmed, traders remain cautious — sellers have consistently defended this zone and the area represents a decisive battleground for near-term direction.
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